Radio Preppers

General Category => General Discussion => Topic started by: Joe on January 09, 2014, 09:59:32 AM

Title: Incoming CME, Released December 20, 2014
Post by: Joe on January 09, 2014, 09:59:32 AM
Hello All,

The next couple of days could be interesting with the incoming CME.

NASA: Incoming CME Will Cause a Geomagnetic Storm

NOAA is predicting a geomagnetic storm later today as the CME from the X1 flare hits the Earths magnetosphere. The speed of the solar wind will spike at around 1.6 million miles per hour (700km/s). - See more at: http://www.thedailysheeple.com/nasa-announce-incoming-cme-will-cause-a-geomagnetic-storm_012014#sthash.L1xTDRVV.dpuf

The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) has the following information for the 9th, 10th and 11th January: - See more at: http://www.thedailysheeple.com/nasa-announce-incoming-cme-will-cause-a-geomagnetic-storm_012014#sthash.L1xTDRVV.dpuf

January 9th

50-90% chance of major-severe geomagnetic storm depending on where you live. The further north you are the higher the percentage of risk

January 10th

50-85% chance of major-severe geomagnetic storm depending on where you live. The further north you are the higher the percentage of risk.

January 11th

1-50% chance of major-severe geomagnetic storm depending on where you live. The further north you are the higher the percentage of risk.
- See more at: http://www.thedailysheeple.com/nasa-announce-incoming-cme-will-cause-a-geomagnetic-storm_012014#sthash.L1xTDRVV.dpuf

Link to article: http://www.thedailysheeple.com/nasa-announce-incoming-cme-will-cause-a-geomagnetic-storm_012014

73

Joe
Title: Re: Incoming CME
Post by: RadioRay on January 09, 2014, 03:54:33 PM
Thanks for posting this, Joe. It will interest me to see what happens with my radio skeds.

RadioRay. ..._. ._
Title: Re: Incoming CME
Post by: RichardSinFWTX on January 09, 2014, 04:18:45 PM
Am I the only one who's hearing the song, "It's the End of the World as We Know It!"  ??  :)
Title: Re: Incoming CME
Post by: Joe on January 09, 2014, 06:17:34 PM
Ray it should be fun on skeds the next couple of days, and how it affects everything.

2014-01-09 20:02 UTC  CME Has Arrived

The coronal mass ejection (CME), originally expected to arrive around 0800 UTC (3:00 a.m. EST) today, January 9, was observed at the ACE spacecraft just upstream of Earth at 1932 UTC (2:32 p.m. EST).  It's too early to see much with respect to the magnetic structure of this CME, but short-term, high-confidence warnings will be issued as this event plays out.  The original forecast continues to be for G3 (Strong) Geomagnetic Storm activity on January 9 and 10.  Aurora watchers may be in luck for tonight.  The ongoing Solar Radiation Storm, currently at S2 (Moderate) levels, is seeing a modest enhancement with this shock passage but remains below S3 (Strong) threshold at this time.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/

G 3  Strong 

Power systems:  voltage corrections may be required, false alarms triggered on some protection devices.

Spacecraft operations:  surface charging may occur on satellite components, drag may increase on low-Earth-orbit satellites, and corrections may be needed for orientation problems.

Other systems:  intermittent satellite navigation and low-frequency radio navigation problems may occur, HF radio may be intermittent, and aurora has been seen as low as Illinois and Oregon (typically 50° geomagnetic lat.)**.


S 2  Moderate 

Biological:  passengers and crew in high-flying aircraft at high latitudes may be exposed to elevated radiation risk.***

Satellite operations: infrequent single-event upsets possible.

Other systems: small effects on HF propagation through the polar regions and navigation at polar cap locations possibly affected.


S 3 Strong 

Biological: radiation hazard avoidance recommended for astronauts on EVA; passengers and crew in high-flying aircraft at high latitudes may be exposed to radiation risk.***

Satellite operations: single-event upsets, noise in imaging systems, and slight reduction of efficiency in solar panel are likely.

Other systems: degraded HF radio propagation through the polar regions and navigation position errors likely.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/index.html#GeomagneticStorms

Title: Re: Incoming CME
Post by: gil on January 11, 2014, 09:09:03 PM
This happens every eleven years. It's easy to forget.. Of course there could always be a big one like in 1859. Would we be warned? I believe so. There would be a mad rush to the grocery stores though and everything would be emptied within hours. Better be prepared in advance.. But we all know that. I still keep my radios in a tin can, just in case of a lightning strike. My computer is backed-up online. I think my next purchase will be a metal trash can to put all my electronics in there when not in use.

Gil.
Title: Re: Incoming CME
Post by: raybiker73 on January 12, 2014, 04:23:20 PM
Quote from: gil on January 11, 2014, 09:09:03 PM
This happens every eleven years. It's easy to forget.. Of course there could always be a big one like in 1859. Would we be warned? I believe so. There would be a mad rush to the grocery stores though and everything would be emptied within hours. Better be prepared in advance.. But we all know that. I still keep my radios in a tin can, just in case of a lightning strike. My computer is backed-up online. I think my next purchase will be a metal trash can to put all my electronics in there when not in use.

Gil.

I had considered the trash can plan as well, but then I bought a small metal filing cabinet for $5 at a yard sale and lined the inside with both rubber sheet and cardboard. It is easier to keep things organized, and it's nice that it locks, although a determined intruder could break the lock with a bit of effort.
Title: Re: Incoming CME
Post by: White Tiger on January 12, 2014, 09:09:44 PM
Ever since ttabs brought this issue up in a thread from long ago...lets see, ah...here it is...http://radiopreppers.com/index.php?topic=330

I have thought of using the filing cabinet idea. From what I have read about this - you do need to consider protecting solid state electronic equipment from CME's - you need to also keep some feedline in your "faraday box" - and watch out about grounding those things. Apparently, grounding systems actually act like antenna's that direct the damaging ion flux right into your shack!

I have a couple of radios, dipoles, and feedline inside two old military night vision goggle cases - made sure the lid has continuity to the base and that the items are suspended in foam and not near enough to the edges of the inside of the case to cause problems.

I carry a 2m Baofeng UV-5R with me in the car and I have recently considered storing it in an ammo can - anyone have some practical experience with something similar?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD
Title: Re: Incoming CME
Post by: gil on January 12, 2014, 11:09:41 PM
Here's mine... I had to eat all the cookies  ::) Big enough for my KX3 and MTR.
Notice the connection between the can and the lid.

Gil.
Title: Trashcan Faraday Cage - DANGER!
Post by: RadioRay on January 13, 2014, 02:12:29 AM
(http://intuart.com/billbinzen/archive/newyork/newyork-Images/52.jpg)

Why Is It That I Have To Throw Out All Those Radios He Put In The Trash Can, but Was TOO Lazy To ACTUALLY Throw Them Away Himself?!?


(http://image.shutterstock.com/display_pic_with_logo/72815/72815,1281453616,3/stock-photo-frustrated-man-58814683.jpg)

de RadioRay ..._ ._
Title: Re: Incoming CME
Post by: gil on January 13, 2014, 02:27:04 AM
Good thing I'm single at the moment  :o

Gil.
Title: Re: Incoming CME
Post by: White Tiger on January 13, 2014, 02:06:07 PM
Quote from: RadioRay on January 13, 2014, 02:12:29 AM
(http://intuart.com/billbinzen/archive/newyork/newyork-Images/52.jpg)

Why Is It That I Have To Throw Out All Those Radios He Put In The Trash Can, but Was TOO Lazy To ACTUALLY Throw Them Away Himself?!?


(http://image.shutterstock.com/display_pic_with_logo/72815/72815,1281453616,3/stock-photo-frustrated-man-58814683.jpg)

de RadioRay ..._ ._

Hah, Ray! That certainly adds some perspective...maybe I'll stick with the filing cabinet concept.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD
Title: Re: Incoming CME
Post by: RichardSinFWTX on January 13, 2014, 02:23:11 PM
Quote from: gil on January 12, 2014, 11:09:41 PM
Here's mine... I had to eat all the cookies  ::) Big enough for my KX3 and MTR.
Notice the connection between the can and the lid.

Gil.

That's the same thing I do, Gil.  I just added a drawer pull to the lid.  I use those big popcorn tins too.

Title: Re: Incoming CME
Post by: gil on January 13, 2014, 03:27:20 PM
QuoteI use those big popcorn tins too.

Ah, but I don't like popcorn much ::)

Guess I could find a BIG cookie tin...

Gil.
Title: Re: Incoming CME
Post by: RichardSinFWTX on January 13, 2014, 03:38:12 PM
Neither do I; but it never fails, every holiday we get at least one.

I dump it out then thoroughly scrub it out.  I screw on the drawer pull then mask off the outer edge of the can and the inner edge of the lid (ensuring a good metal to metal contact) then give the inside of the can and the lid two or three coats of FlexSeal. 

I hope to never have to test the EMP withstanding capability...;)

Title: Re: Incoming CME
Post by: White Tiger on January 14, 2014, 12:21:02 PM
Quote from: KF5RHI on January 13, 2014, 03:38:12 PM
Neither do I; but it never fails, every holiday we get at least one.

I dump it out then thoroughly scrub it out.  I screw on the drawer pull then mask off the outer edge of the can and the inner edge of the lid (ensuring a good metal to metal contact) then give the inside of the can and the lid two or three coats of FlexSeal. 

I hope to never have to test the EMP withstanding capability...;)

Someone from here (Frosty, or Ray?) gave me a great (read: cheap) way to test the continuity of "lid" to "base"...put a cell phone inside the container, then dial it.

If it rings, you don't have continuity, or it's not a good anti-EMP safe.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD
Title: Re: Incoming CME
Post by: RichardSinFWTX on January 14, 2014, 12:26:44 PM
I've wondered about that.  I've seen it done in YouTube videos; but I can't help but wonder is it truly blocking the energy or is it just that the audio from the ringer isn't loud enough to be heard through the can/lid. 

I'll see if I can test the theory this weekend.

Stay tuned for the results.   8)
Title: Re: Incoming CME
Post by: gil on January 14, 2014, 02:28:19 PM
QuoteIf it rings, you don't have continuity, or it's not a good anti-EMP safe.

I tried that... Doesn't ring. It's not because it is in the can, I would hear it.
I do not know if it really means it's EMP safe though. I have seen a demo of a Faraday bag with a cell phone and it rang in the bag. The bag was placed in a microwave then... No damage to the phone.

Gil.
Title: Re: Incoming CME
Post by: cockpitbob on January 14, 2014, 02:48:51 PM
Another fun one to try is put an HT on receive in the can.  That way you can blast it with a few watts up close.  Try both bands if you have a couple dual-band HTs.
Title: Re: Incoming CME
Post by: Quietguy on January 14, 2014, 07:15:49 PM
The telephone test is actually a fairly good one - EMP frequencies are far below the operating frequency of a cell phone, so if the can stops cell phone frequencies it certainly should stop EMP frequencies.  In 1986 QST Magazine ran a four part series on EMP and its possible effects on amateur radio.  The author worked for the FedGov and ran tests using EMP simulators that showed ham gear pretty immune to EMP as long as nothing was connected to them to serve as an antenna for the EMP energy.  Their interest was in keeping MARS going, among other things.

Here is an excerpt:

QuoteFrom "Electromagnetic Pulse and the Radio Amateur - Part 1"
QST Mgazine, August 1986

The energy of a high-altitude EMP is spread over a major part of the RF spectrum.  Since the pulse has such a fast rise time and short duration, it covers a broad frequency range extending from 10 kilohertz to 100 megahertz.  The electric field strength remains fairly constant in the 10-khz to 1-MHz band; it decreases by a factor of 100 in the 1- to 100 MHz band and continues to decrease at a faster rate for frequencies greater than 100 MHz.  Most high altitude EMP energy is at frequencies between 100 kHz and 10 MHz, and 99% lies in the frequency spectrum below 100 MHz (Fig 5).

Wally
Title: Re: Incoming CME
Post by: raybiker73 on January 14, 2014, 08:17:31 PM
Quote from: Quietguy on January 14, 2014, 07:15:49 PM
The telephone test is actually a fairly good one - EMP frequencies are far below the operating frequency of a cell phone, so if the can stops cell phone frequencies it certainly should stop EMP frequencies.  In 1986 QST Magazine ran a four part series on EMP and its possible effects on amateur radio.  The author worked for the FedGov and ran tests using EMP simulators that showed ham gear pretty immune to EMP as long as nothing was connected to them to serve as an antenna for the EMP energy.  Their interest was in keeping MARS going, among other things.


That's interesting! It would be cool to see a test done with modern equipment. I wonder if the newer rigs would hold up as well? I'm going to go dig into the QST archive and check this series out.
Title: Re: Incoming CME
Post by: Quietguy on January 14, 2014, 09:36:49 PM
Quote from: raybiker73 on January 14, 2014, 08:17:31 PMI wonder if the newer rigs would hold up as well?
I think probably so - there was a series of televised EMP tests a few years ago showing the effect on new automobiles, and they had to work hard to get a failure.  I don't remember the name of the program, but I saw a portion of the video.

CAUTION - UNPOPULAR OPINION FOLLOWS!

I believe there has been a lot of confusion (some of it deliberately propagated by the Fear Merchants) where EMP effects have been merged with ionizing radiation effects.  We hear EMP will kill chips - but EMP is a burst of static charge coupled with a very powerful radio wave. EMP = ElectroMagnetic Pulse = Radio Wave.  The radio wave will induce a voltage on a long wire (after all, that is what antennas do) and that voltage can fry a chip, just like any high voltage beyond the chip's rating.  But the chip itself should have internal conductor lengths that are truly microscopic compared to the frequency content of an EMP - 99% below 100 MHz.  Modern equipment is constructed with almost no interconnect wiring inside the case; it is mostly short PCB runs.  So equipment with no external connections like antenna, ground wire, headset cable, power supply cable, etc should do reasonably well.

However, ionizing radiation from a nuclear burst will kill chips and other electronics because of the hard radiation - but that is not what we have with an EMP.  It seems to me that if you have an incident where you are exposed to enough ionizing radiation to kill chips, you probably have more important things to worry about... or you likely will no longer be worried about anything at all.

So my opinion is practice good transient protection and treat your equipment like a lightning strike is eminent.  Disconnect your equipment when not in use and use transient voltage suppression devices where appropriate.  There are two flavors documented in the QST articles, one using MOVs for AC power protection and one using TVS diodes for things like antenna connections.  There are newer devices on the market too.  It costs very little to store your radios in a cookie tin or filing cabinet when not in use and it can't hurt - so why not?  But some people obsess over these things and I believe it takes away from more important issues... like figuring out where your water will come from if somebody dumps chemicals in your river.

Wally
Title: Re: Incoming CME
Post by: gil on January 14, 2014, 10:41:46 PM
QuoteI wonder if the newer rigs would hold up as well?

While building kits, some chips and transistors you can't even touch without grounding yourself first... So, I'd say those would not make it though an EMP.

Gil.
Title: Re: Incoming CME
Post by: cockpitbob on January 15, 2014, 09:21:27 AM
Quietguy, you've posted some really good stuff here. 

Regarding the ionizing radiation; I hadn't thought about that, but it makes a lot of sense and a harmful human dose won't be needed to kill our computerized radios.  All it takes is one hit by a high energy particle to flip a memory bit from 1 to 0.  I can easily see the case where our radios are not "damaged" but the program memory is scrambled rendering the radio useless.  I really need to get that Heathkit HW101 operational.

I really like the chart of EMP frequency content.  An EMI tight faraday cage should have no gaps or slots longer than 1/20 of a wavelength.  Since most of an EMP's energy is below 100MHz the doors to our faraday cages should make contact at least every 6".  A trash can with a tight lid will probably do that.  A metal cabinet won't without metal finger gaskets on the doors.
Title: Re: Incoming CME
Post by: cockpitbob on September 11, 2014, 04:46:31 PM
Two are on the way.  Monday evening the sun gave a small burp in our direction and Wednesday it belched an X-class flair.  They'll arrive Friday and Saturday.

spaceweather.com (http://www.spaceweather.com/) and USA Today  (http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2014/09/10/solar-flare-space-weather/15415827/)imply HF communications will be affected but there's only a small chance the power grid will have problems. 
Title: Re: Incoming CME
Post by: raybiker73 on September 11, 2014, 04:51:50 PM
Space.com had a good piece about it yesterday as well.

http://www.space.com/27110-sun-unleashes-big-solar-flare.html (http://www.space.com/27110-sun-unleashes-big-solar-flare.html)
Title: Re: Incoming CME
Post by: gil on September 11, 2014, 10:15:09 PM
Hello,

Last night's sked with Ray on 40m was pretty noisy with lots of QSB (fading).. I did get most of it but was glad for the earphones.. Sorry Ray, I missed tonight, I was talking to a girl at the coffee shop ::)

Gil.
Title: Re: Incoming CME
Post by: RadioRay on September 11, 2014, 10:17:17 PM
I put my cellphone into the microwave oven and set it to cook a 25 pound turkey.  I think it's safe from EMP now, because it no longer rings. 

(http://www.eonline.com/eol_images/Entire_Site/2014628/rs_560x365-140728133730-560.2burnt-cell-phine.ls.72814.jpg)

For that matter, it no longer even looks like a cell phone.

de RadioRay ..._  ._



Ps.  Gil - Good choice!     ;) :-*


Title: Re: Incoming CME
Post by: cockpitbob on September 12, 2014, 08:13:31 PM
I think it's going to be a waste of time, but I'm about to go hike the biggest hill within 30 minutes;  all 195' of it :P .  It's in a wooded, dark area and is bald, so no trees to block my attempt to see the aurora.
Anyone else going to try to catch a glimpse of the aurora?
Title: Re: Incoming CME
Post by: RadioRay on September 12, 2014, 08:45:07 PM
The thought had occurred to me. I live in a rural area, but I am just below the forecast fringe to see it and the horizon due north is DC/Baltimore light pollution.  All those muzzle flashes and burning businesses make it tough to see the aurora ...  ;-)


Let us know how it works for you, please.


>RadioRay ..._  ._


Title: Re: Incoming CME
Post by: cockpitbob on September 12, 2014, 09:13:45 PM
Nuthun.  I had a nice1 mile night hike though.  I'm 25miles north of Boston.  Maybe it will get better before morning, but a full moon is just rising and I don't think the northern lights can compete with that, even on good day.
Title: Re: Incoming CME // 20m sked died...//Satellite Internet...
Post by: RadioRay on September 12, 2014, 09:53:08 PM
Ho ! Well, you'd be in a good position to see them, as far as latitude is concerned.

-...-

I had a sked on 20m not long ago and his signal began at a good S9+10 and no fading.  After ten minutes, we had DEEP FADES and the signal settled with peaks at S1 in just under TWO MINUTES!  Fortunately, we both have a very low local noise level, so we were able to coordinate a sign-off.  SOoooo - I'd say that it has arrived.  OTOH -40m is just fine so far, with stations from Brazil to Massachusetts coming in well.


>RadioRay ..._  ._

Ps. I just noticed that my satellite internet signal is fading away too.  It's dropping fast.
Title: Re: Incoming CME
Post by: Joe on December 20, 2014, 11:30:44 AM
X-FLARE! Big sunspot AR2242 erupted on Saturday, Dec. 20th @ 00:27 UT, producing an intense X1.8-class solar flare.

There has already been one Earth-effect: Extreme UV radiation from the flare ionized our planet's upper atmosphere and blacked out HF radio communications over Australia and the South Pacific. Below 10 MHz, transmissions were strongly attenuated for more than two hours.

http://www.spaceweather.com/

73
Joe
Title: Re: Incoming CME, Released December 20, 2014
Post by: gil on December 20, 2014, 12:38:14 PM
I think it was on Thursday maybe, Ray and I could not hear each other, which is very rare on 20m. Today was fine, even with just 4W. i have not tried 40m though...

Gil.
Title: Re: Incoming CME, Released December 20, 2014
Post by: sdr on December 20, 2014, 11:44:51 PM
Hi folks. New to the site. So a metal cabinet with aluminum foil tape for the gaps? Any ideas?
Title: Re: Incoming CME, Released December 20, 2014
Post by: Joe on December 21, 2014, 10:36:05 AM
Quote from: sdr on December 20, 2014, 11:44:51 PM
Hi folks. New to the site. So a metal cabinet with aluminum foil tape for the gaps? Any ideas?

Hello sdr and welcome to the forum, check out the link below for information that was put together here on Building Your Own EMP Faraday Cage .

http://radiopreppers.com/index.php/topic,330.0.html (http://radiopreppers.com/index.php/topic,330.0.html)

73
Joe